# FactTracker.app - LLMs.txt
# Last updated: 2026-09-13

## About
FactTracker.app tracks public claims and predictions from politicians, CEOs, experts, and influencers. It verifies them against real-world outcomes and calculates sourced accuracy from binary TRUE or FALSE assessments that include structured evidence links and internally consistent recorded timing. Explicit probability forecasts record their stated probability and observed event outcome separately and do not enter binary accuracy.

## Live Statistics
- Total public claims tracked: 2157
- Stored binary TRUE assessments: 428
- Stored binary FALSE assessments: 482
- Score-eligible binary TRUE outcomes: 87
- Score-eligible binary FALSE outcomes: 72
- Resolved probability forecasts: 4
- Awaiting verification: 921
- Unresolvable: 322
- Actors tracked: 829
- Accuracy rule: only evidence-backed binary TRUE or FALSE assessments with consistent recorded timing affect actor scores

## Base URL
https://facttracker.app

## Main Pages
- / - Homepage (redirects to /claims)
- /claims - Global claims feed with filtering by topic, status, and search
- /topics - Topic clusters: Technology, Economy, Politics, Climate, Crypto, Society, Science, Sport
- /actors - Browse all tracked actors with accuracy scores
- /actors/{slug} - Individual actor profile with claim history and accuracy metrics
- /rankings - Most and least accurate actors, ranked with Wilson score bounds
- /reports - Citable prediction accountability reports built from tracked claims
- /reports/{slug} - Report detail page with claim receipts, outcomes, and citation text
- /methodology - Scoring, evidence, timing, and forecast-modality rules
- /about - About page explaining the platform

## How It Works
1. Claims are discovered from news, social media, podcasts, interviews, and official statements
2. Each claim must be specific, measurable, and have a deadline or verifiable event outcome
3. When a verification window closes, evidence is checked against the claim's explicit criteria
4. Raw assessments remain visible, while actor scores use only evidence-backed binary outcomes with consistent recorded timing
5. Explicit probability forecasts are reported separately from binary accuracy

## Data Models

### Actor
- name, type (INDIVIDUAL/ORGANIZATION), sourced accuracy, tracked claim count, bio, social handles

### Claim (Prediction)
- actor, claim text, source URL, publication date, deadline or event condition, topic, forecast kind, status, verification reasoning, evidence links

## Topics
Technology, Economy, Politics, Climate, Crypto, Society, Science, Sport

## API and Discovery
- /sitemap.xml - Sitemap index for search engines
- /sitemaps/core.xml - Core sitemap with static, topic, and actor pages
- /sitemaps/claims/{page}.xml - Paginated claim detail sitemaps
- /llms.txt - Concise AI-readable context and live aggregate statistics
- /llms-full.txt - Extended context with canonical rankings and recent score-eligible outcomes

## Contact
Visit https://facttracker.app/about for more information.

## Most Accurate Actor Group (up to 10; Wilson lower bound; disjoint)
1. Warren Buffett: 89% sourced accuracy (9 score-eligible outcomes)
2. Mitch McConnell: 83% sourced accuracy (6 score-eligible outcomes)
3. Justin Trudeau: 80% sourced accuracy (5 score-eligible outcomes)
4. Bill Gates: 64% sourced accuracy (11 score-eligible outcomes)

## Least Accurate Actor Group (up to 10; Wilson upper bound; disjoint)
1. Michael Saylor: 0% sourced accuracy (5 score-eligible outcomes)
2. Marine Le Pen: 29% sourced accuracy (7 score-eligible outcomes)
3. Larry Fink: 60% sourced accuracy (5 score-eligible outcomes)

## 20 Most Recently Resolved Score-Eligible Claims
- [FALSE] Melinda Gates: "Polio will be declared eradicated by 2018 or within one or two years of that." (deadline: 2020-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/5ab1e7bd-eba0-40bd-bb81-f00e9aeb9352
- [FALSE] Bill Gates: "The global polio community's detailed plan should allow us to finish the job of polio eradication within the next six years." (deadline: 2019-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/93e54523-42ee-44ec-8e4b-1b475da700da
- [FALSE] Bill Gates: "Polio would be completely eradicated from the world." (deadline: 2018-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/f07102b0-4e1f-48e2-9cb6-7f91e84af9f8
- [TRUE] Larry Fink: "BlackRock plans to launch sustainable versions of its asset allocation iShares." (deadline: 2020-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/112f4846-2339-414f-bc35-f7be43897292
- [FALSE] Larry Fink: "BlackRock will introduce a 2030 target for its net zero aligned assets." (deadline: 2021-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/240f7c32-eb34-49e8-9002-ceb331c681d2
- [FALSE] Bijié Wǎng: "BTC could rise to $260,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025." (deadline: 2025-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/6528b72d-56fb-4ad7-8679-1e990cc3125a
- [TRUE] Citi: "Citi cuts near-term gold price target from $4,300 to $4,000" (deadline: 2026-09-09) — https://facttracker.app/claims/294c4ead-7fb4-4979-ae87-13f5edd0dafd
- [FALSE] John Mearsheimer: "The actual fighting in Ukraine will not last beyond 2025." (deadline: 2025-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/633957a2-54c2-4542-befd-c1ddaa5ed533
- [TRUE] Citigroup: "gold price target for the next three months to $4,000 per ounce" (deadline: 2026-09-09) — https://facttracker.app/claims/9ccb4a0b-dda2-49de-9d78-bd47e15fc8c8
- [TRUE] Warren Buffett: "Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire." (deadline: 2017-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/e51111b2-96da-4d05-841f-dd124a56f59c
- [TRUE] Warren Buffett: "Warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares would be of great value, resulting in a $12 billion gain." (deadline: 2017-12-31) — https://facttracker.app/claims/f8e6721c-a452-49d1-9f1b-54c3fe5a43a3
- [TRUE] US Senate: "The US Senate will hold a vote on the future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credit subsidies by mid-December 2025." (deadline: 2025-12-15) — https://facttracker.app/claims/93abebc0-ca8b-4bc7-bc02-10eaab76c8c3
- [FALSE] Dennis Lin of The Athletic: "Mason Miller is traded by the Padres, just not when most might expect, given the rumors ahead of the 2026 MLB trade deadline" (deadline: event-based) — https://facttracker.app/claims/5274e0a1-da09-4094-b122-5988326bbbcd
- [FALSE] Jamie Dimon: "Households' $1.5 trillion in excess savings from pandemic relief programs would run out." (deadline: 2023-06-30) — https://facttracker.app/claims/d65178bf-b131-4252-b4a9-f4908860bd10
- [TRUE] Jerome Powell: "The Federal Reserve will halt the reduction of its asset portfolio." (deadline: 2025-12-01) — https://facttracker.app/claims/603585c7-12ee-4a46-849c-e088d37dcf9d
- [TRUE] Jerome Powell: "The Federal Reserve will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings." (deadline: 2025-12-01) — https://facttracker.app/claims/1db5ebcf-75d4-45eb-94ae-719462b3cbd2
- [TRUE] 24/7 Wall St.: "SMCI base case at $29.04, or 19.59% upside" (deadline: event-based) — https://facttracker.app/claims/5b2c4593-eab8-4c46-bc26-456634f9814f
- [TRUE] Kazuo Ueda: "The Bank of Japan planned to end negative interest rates by March or April." (deadline: 2024-04-30) — https://facttracker.app/claims/62d63330-9717-4645-ad6e-7127aa20cdfd
- [TRUE] Jerome Powell: "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold the size of its balance sheet steady starting in December 2025." (deadline: 2025-12-01) — https://facttracker.app/claims/4fc626a7-ede0-4e70-89b4-aa700695c541
- [FALSE] Donald Trump: "Tariffs on the Government of Brazil will be modified through an executive order." (deadline: 2025-11-30) — https://facttracker.app/claims/2226d127-3c24-4e34-8cec-d07478c17c09