Ray Dalio

Recent claims

• the U.S. is entering a period of 'great turbulence' so severe that the country will be 'almost unrecognizable' in five years
  May 8, 2026
• U.S. interest payments alone are projected to hit $1 trillion annually by 2026, contributing to a "debt death spiral."
  Nov 23, 2025
• The United States is sliding toward a "pseudo civil war" in the 2025-2030 decade, driven by deep divisions, runaway debt, and a fading sense of national unity.
  Nov 23, 2025
• A debt-driven crisis in the US could strike within the next three years (from September 2025).
  Sep 6, 2025
• He estimates a 60–65% chance of a major restructuring, monetisation or crisis [in the US debt cycle] within the next five years if correction steps aren't taken.
  Aug 16, 2025
• The U.S. will experience a 'debt-induced heart attack' due to too much debt and too few buyers for bonds.
  Mar 4, 2025
• The U.S. has about three years, give or take a year, until it has a heart attack from too much debt (from March 2025).
  Mar 4, 2025
• Stocks and bonds will lose more than 1.5% in 2023.
  Feb 6, 2023
• The Federal Reserve would hike interest rates to at least 4.5%, leading to a 20% decline in stock prices.
  Sep 15, 2022
• Cash is trash, as its value would potentially erode with inflation.
  May 1, 2020