FactTracker Rankings

Most & Least Accurate Forecaster Organizations

Organizations — agencies, banks, think tanks, media outlets — ranked by Wilson-score-bound accuracy on the public predictions FactTracker has resolved.

How the ranking works

Each forecaster's accuracy is the share of their resolved public predictions that came true. Rankings use the Wilson score interval (95% confidence), not raw accuracy, so a single 100% lucky guess doesn't outrank someone with 90% over 30 predictions. Methodology →

Top 25 — Most Accurate

  1. #1
    European Union
    Organization · 3 tracked · 3 resolved
    100%
  2. #2
    Wikimedia Foundation
    Organization · 7 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  3. #3
    U.S. Department of Education
    Organization · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  4. #4
    FXEmpire
    Organization · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  5. #5
    Unknown
    Organization · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  6. #6
    Milano Cortina 2026 Organising Committee
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  7. #7
    Rob Goldstein
    Organization · 5 tracked · 4 resolved
    75%
  8. #8
    The Economist
    Organization · 7 tracked · 3 resolved
    67%
  9. #9
    Liane Randolph
    Organization · 7 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  10. #10
    Storm Prediction Center
    Organization · 4 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  11. #11
    Waejan Iverson
    Organization · 3 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  12. #12
    European Central Bank
    Organization · 3 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  13. #13
    Block Inc.
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  14. #14
    24/7 Wall St.
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  15. #15
    CBS Sports
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  16. #16
    Polymarket
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  17. #17
    Target
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  18. #18
    Tesla
    Organization · 2 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  19. #19
    The SportsLine Projection Model
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  20. #20
    LOLValue
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  21. #21
    Nyrstar
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  22. #22
    Eliciting Insights
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  23. #23
    US Congress
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  24. #24
    Ørsted
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%
  25. #25
    General Services Administration
    Organization · 1 tracked · 1 resolved
    100%

Top 25 — Least Accurate

  1. #1
    Ethereum Foundation
    Organization · 8 tracked · 4 resolved
    0%
  2. #2
    Vanguard
    Organization · 8 tracked · 6 resolved
    17%
  3. #3
    Forrester
    Organization · 10 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  4. #4
    BloombergNEF
    Organization · 6 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  5. #5
    Meta
    Organization · 5 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  6. #6
    UK Government
    Organization · 5 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  7. #7
    ESA
    Organization · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  8. #8
    VanEck
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  9. #9
    Intel
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  10. #10
    Deadspin
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  11. #11
    United Kingdom
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  12. #12
    Apple
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  13. #13
    Blue Origin
    Organization · 2 tracked · 2 resolved
    0%
  14. #14
    IDC
    Organization · 7 tracked · 3 resolved
    33%
  15. #15
    SportsLine's model
    Organization · 5 tracked · 3 resolved
    33%
  16. #16
    Australian Government
    Organization · 3 tracked · 3 resolved
    33%
  17. #17
    Gartner
    Organization · 15 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  18. #18
    International Monetary Fund
    Organization · 8 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  19. #19
    IBM
    Organization · 7 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  20. #20
    gematik
    Organization · 6 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  21. #21
    United Nations
    Organization · 5 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  22. #22
    Quantumrun Foresight
    Organization · 5 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  23. #23
    Evan Spiegel
    Organization · 4 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  24. #24
    Bernstein Research
    Organization · 3 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%
  25. #25
    Newsweek
    Organization · 3 tracked · 1 resolved
    0%