FactTracker Rankings
Most & Least Accurate Forecasters (Individuals)
Individual forecasters — politicians, executives, pundits, and analysts — ranked by Wilson-score-bound accuracy on score-eligible sourced outcomes.
How the ranking works
Each forecaster's sourced accuracy is the share of their score-eligible outcomes that came true. TRUE or FALSE assessments count only with a structured evidence link and consistent recorded timing. Rankings use the Wilson score interval (95% confidence), not raw accuracy, so a single lucky result cannot outrank a larger documented record. Leader and laggard groups are disjoint, so one actor is never presented in both. Methodology →
Most Accurate Group
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#1 89%
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#2 83%
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#3 67%
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#4 80%
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#5 60%
Least Accurate Group
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#1 0%
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#2 0%
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#3 29%
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#4 50%