FactTracker Rankings
Most & Least Accurate Forecasters (Individuals)
Individual forecasters — politicians, executives, pundits, analysts — ranked by Wilson-score-bound accuracy on their public predictions tracked by FactTracker.
How the ranking works
Each forecaster's accuracy is the share of their resolved public predictions that came true. Rankings use the Wilson score interval (95% confidence), not raw accuracy, so a single 100% lucky guess doesn't outrank someone with 90% over 30 predictions. Methodology →
Top 25 — Most Accurate
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#1 89%
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#2 81%
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#3 100%
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#4 80%
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#5 100%
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#6 80%
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#7 73%
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#8 75%
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#9 78%
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#10 100%
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#11 100%
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#12 100%
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#13 65%
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#14 75%
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#15 60%
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#16 80%
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#17 67%
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#18 64%
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#19 64%
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#20 100%
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#21 100%
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#22 100%
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#23 100%
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#24 100%
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#25 100%
Top 25 — Least Accurate
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#1 0%
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#2 0%
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#3 7%
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#4 0%
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#5 0%
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#6 0%
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#7 0%
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#8 0%
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#9 23%
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#10 13%
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#11 0%
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#12 0%
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#13 0%
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#14 32%
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#15 22%
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#16 0%
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#17 0%
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#18 33%
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#19 17%
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#20 17%
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#21 36%
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#22 39%
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#23 25%
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#24 30%
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#25 20%