FactTracker Rankings

Forecaster Accuracy Rankings

The most and least accurate forecasters tracked by FactTracker — politicians, executives, analysts, and organizations ranked by Wilson-score-bound accuracy across resolved public predictions.

How the ranking works

Each forecaster's accuracy is the share of their resolved public predictions that came true. Rankings use the Wilson score interval (95% confidence), not raw accuracy, so a single 100% lucky guess doesn't outrank someone with 90% over 30 predictions. Methodology →

Top 25 — Most Accurate

  1. #1
    Ron DeSantis
    Individual · 26 tracked · 19 resolved
    89%
  2. #2
    Mitch McConnell
    Individual · 21 tracked · 15 resolved
    80%
  3. #3
    Joe Kent
    Individual · 10 tracked · 4 resolved
    100%
  4. #4
    Gianni Infantino
    Organization · 6 tracked · 4 resolved
    100%
  5. #5
    Reed Hastings
    Individual · 11 tracked · 10 resolved
    80%
  6. #6
    Sundar Pichai
    Individual · 23 tracked · 15 resolved
    73%
  7. #7
    Warren Buffett
    Individual · 18 tracked · 12 resolved
    75%
  8. #8
    Karl Lauterbach
    Individual · 12 tracked · 9 resolved
    78%
  9. #9
    Keir Starmer
    Individual · 12 tracked · 3 resolved
    100%
  10. #10
    Brendan Schaub
    Individual · 4 tracked · 3 resolved
    100%
  11. #11
    European Union
    Organization · 3 tracked · 3 resolved
    100%
  12. #12
    Olaf Scholz
    Individual · 3 tracked · 3 resolved
    100%
  13. #13
    Christine Lagarde
    Individual · 24 tracked · 17 resolved
    65%
  14. #14
    Changpeng Zhao
    Individual · 11 tracked · 8 resolved
    75%
  15. #15
    Kazuo Ueda
    Individual · 10 tracked · 5 resolved
    80%
  16. #16
    Volodymyr Zelenskyy
    Individual · 22 tracked · 21 resolved
    57%
  17. #17
    Justin Trudeau
    Individual · 22 tracked · 17 resolved
    59%
  18. #18
    Larry Fink
    Individual · 15 tracked · 9 resolved
    67%
  19. #19
    Mark Gurman
    Individual · 8 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  20. #20
    Jack Dorsey
    Individual · 8 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  21. #21
    Wikimedia Foundation
    Organization · 7 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  22. #22
    Noam Chomsky
    Individual · 6 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  23. #23
    Dario Amodei
    Individual · 4 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  24. #24
    Unknown
    Organization · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%
  25. #25
    Saskia Esken
    Individual · 3 tracked · 2 resolved
    100%

Top 25 — Least Accurate

  1. #1
    Bernie Sanders
    Individual · 18 tracked · 12 resolved
    0%
  2. #2
    Al Gore
    Individual · 12 tracked · 11 resolved
    0%
  3. #3
    Giorgia Meloni
    Individual · 13 tracked · 9 resolved
    0%
  4. #4
    Marine Le Pen
    Individual · 19 tracked · 14 resolved
    7%
  5. #5
    Balaji Srinivasan
    Individual · 14 tracked · 8 resolved
    0%
  6. #6
    Marianne Williamson
    Individual · 11 tracked · 6 resolved
    0%
  7. #7
    Nostradamus
    Individual · 6 tracked · 6 resolved
    0%
  8. #8
    Meghan Markle
    Individual · 6 tracked · 6 resolved
    0%
  9. #9
    Vladimir Putin
    Individual · 40 tracked · 27 resolved
    26%
  10. #10
    Narendra Modi
    Individual · 24 tracked · 21 resolved
    24%
  11. #11
    Jamie Dimon
    Individual · 13 tracked · 8 resolved
    13%
  12. #12
    Geoffrey Hinton
    Individual · 12 tracked · 4 resolved
    0%
  13. #13
    Ethereum Foundation
    Organization · 8 tracked · 4 resolved
    0%
  14. #14
    Candace Owens
    Individual · 4 tracked · 4 resolved
    0%
  15. #15
    Dietmar Bartsch
    Individual · 4 tracked · 4 resolved
    0%
  16. #16
    Vitalik Buterin
    Individual · 29 tracked · 19 resolved
    32%
  17. #17
    Konstantin Kisin
    Individual · 11 tracked · 9 resolved
    22%
  18. #18
    Melinda Gates
    Individual · 8 tracked · 3 resolved
    0%
  19. #19
    Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
    Individual · 4 tracked · 3 resolved
    0%
  20. #20
    Donald Trump
    Individual · 22 tracked · 18 resolved
    33%
  21. #21
    Markus Krall
    Individual · 9 tracked · 6 resolved
    17%
  22. #22
    John Kerry
    Individual · 9 tracked · 6 resolved
    17%
  23. #23
    Vanguard
    Organization · 8 tracked · 6 resolved
    17%
  24. #24
    Barry Silbert
    Individual · 10 tracked · 8 resolved
    25%
  25. #25
    Elon Musk
    Individual · 20 tracked · 10 resolved
    30%