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Technology predictions tracker
This tracker groups technology claims by source, actor, deadline, and outcome so fast-moving forecasts can be compared after the fact.
What this tracker covers
Follow technology predictions about software, chips, AI, robotics, space, consumer tech, and platform shifts.
- Product, platform, hardware, and software adoption forecasts.
- Semiconductor and compute-supply claims.
- Technology policy, infrastructure, and market-transition predictions.
For the full topic view, see Technology.
Tracked examples
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Big technology companies are vulnerable because now anyone can create software.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · Unresolvable · Source: youtube.com
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Gate.io will launch a unified interface layer called "Gate for AI" on March 6, 2026, enabling AI agents to fully access the platform's capabilities for automated trading, data analysis, and asset management.
Gate.io · May 7, 2026 · True · Source: coinmarketcap.com
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AI models will replace software engineers in 6-12 months
Dario Amodei · Jan 22, 2026 · Pending · Source: finance.yahoo.com
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Anthropic has agreed to use one million of Amazon's custom AI chips.
Andy Jassy · Nov 1, 2025 · False · Source: technology.fmcgmagazine.com
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The AI software market will reach $13 trillion by 2030.
Cathie Wood · Sep 22, 2025 · Pending · Source: fool.com
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Cognitive AI agents will be doing real-world work by 2025.
Sam Altman · Jun 12, 2025 · True · Source: medium.com
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AI software agents will become a dominant force in programming, doing real cognitive work.
Sam Altman · May 21, 2025 · False · Source: evoknow.com
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Meta will develop an AI that can code at the level of a mid-level developer by 2025.
Mark Zuckerberg · Jan 16, 2025 · False · Source: youtube.com
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Meta will launch a new platform to let anyone create their own AI characters and distribute them across Meta's social apps.
Mark Zuckerberg · Jan 18, 2024 · False · Source: socialmediatoday.com
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Training AI models is the new building software for venture investors.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · Unresolvable · Source: youtube.com
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Pure software (without other moats like hardware or network effects) is uninvestable.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · Unresolvable · Source: youtube.com
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Within a year (from December 2023), coding agents will likely be capable of building scalable software with good architecture.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · False · Source: youtube.com
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One-person or two-person software companies will be able to scale to millions of users and generate billions of dollars.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · True · Source: youtube.com
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Software development will become a collaborative process where users and AI agents handle most of the work, with agents doing perfect customer service.
Naval Ravikant · Dec 28, 2023 · Pending · Source: youtube.com
Top tracked actors
- Yann LeCun 13 tracked claims
- Naval Ravikant 12 tracked claims
- Gartner 11 tracked claims
- Sam Altman 10 tracked claims
- Jensen Huang 9 tracked claims
- Satya Nadella 8 tracked claims
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